Lynx; Trump/Erdogan: compare and contrast

Jared Bernstein

Jared Bernstein Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Productivity and wages: They’re connected, of course, but the extent of the connection requires nuanced analysis of wages at different percentiles and movements in labor’s share of national income.

There’s an interesting dichotomy here in how economists and people think about productivity and wages. For many economists, it’s the determinant of wage growth. For many people, it’s irrelevant, in that powerful forces divert productivity growth from paychecks to profits. The truth, especially once you get away from averages, lies in-between. Productivity matters a great deal, but it is not by itself sufficient to drive broadly shared prosperity.

Employment rates also matter a lot: They take the elevator down in recessions and the stairs up in recoveries. They also may carry some info about the arrival of next recession. Plus, their recent movements reveal the disproportionate benefits of full employment to the least advantaged.

Are politicians no longer listening to economists? You wish. In fact, they’re listening to the wrong ones telling them what they want to hear.

Now, a quick note on current events.

As regards the tanking of the Turkish lira, the business press is largely concerned with the contagion question: to what extent will Turkey’s problems spillover into European and American economies? The consensus is “not much,” based on Turkey’s size and financial markets’ limited exposure to Turkish debt, much of which is dollar-denominated, meaning it becomes more expensive to service when the Turkish currency depreciates.

That’s probably right, and Turkey has uniquely weak fundamentals among emerging market economies: “current account deficit of 6.3% of GDP, Corporate foreign exchange debt is 35% of GDP, inflation rate of 16%.” But the situation bears close watching, of course, and the strengthening dollar has important implications for the trade war, i.e., it pushes in the opposite direction of the tariffs (tariffs make imports more expensive; the stronger dollar makes them less expensive).

But another interesting aspect of the Turkish meltdown is how much Trump and Erdogan have in common. In one sense, that’s not surprising, as the strongman, faux populist playbook is pretty straightforward, and history is replete with examples.

In this case, Trump and Erdogan both pursue: reckless fiscal policy, muscling the central bank to keep rates down (though Trump doesn’t use anything like the muscle that Ergodan does), appointing family members to high places (sons-in-law, to be specific), vilifying other countries/media as the source of any woes (in a Trumpian flourish, Erdogan recently blamed “economic terrorists on social media” for spreading misinformation).

And yet, the economic outcomes, particularly via the currency and capital flows couldn’t be more different. In fact, the relative currency moves show foreign exchange traders are pulling out of the riskier emerging markets and buying dollars and U.S. debt.

It’s a reminder of the dominant size and durability of US economy, the role of the dollar as the reserve currency, and our still independent central bank. More broadly, there’s just a lot that insulates the U.S. economy from terrible leadership.

At least there is for now…

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Reposted from On the Economy

Jared Bernstein joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in May 2011 as a Senior Fellow.  From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, executive director of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class, and a member of President Obama’s economic team. Prior to joining the Obama administration, Bernstein was a senior economist and the director of the Living Standards Program at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C. Between 1995 and 1996, he held the post of deputy chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. He is the author and co-author of numerous books, including “Crunch: Why Do I Feel So Squeezed?” and nine editions of “The State of Working America.”

Posted In: Allied Approaches

Union Matters

A Just, Inclusive and Sustainable Economy

From the AFL-CIO

This week, labor leaders from across the country descended on New Orleans to map out the path ahead for our movement. From trade and public education to equal pay and paid leave to back pay for federal contract workers and bargaining power for all, the AFL-CIO Executive Council tackled the issues that will define working people’s fight for economic justice in 2019 and beyond.

Sending waves through Washington yesterday, the Executive Council’s most notable decision was its announcement that, “if the administration insists on a premature vote on the new NAFTA in its current form, we will have no choice but to oppose it.” Here are a few highlights from the statement:

  • Trade policy must be judged by whether it leads to a just, inclusive and sustainable economy....By that measure, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has driven the outsourcing of so many good jobs, has been a catastrophic failure. More than 850,000 U.S. jobs were shipped overseas under NAFTA between 1993 and 2013.
  • By design, NAFTA distorted power relationships in favor of global employers over workers, weakened worker bargaining power and encouraged the de-industrialization of the U.S. economy.
  • After a quarter-century of this race to the bottom, workers in all three NAFTA countries find it more difficult to form unions and negotiate collective bargaining agreements.
  • The NAFTA renegotiation requires strong labor rights provisions and strong enforcement provisions that as of today are not yet in the agreement.
  • The current effort by the business community to pass the new NAFTA is premature, and if it continues, we will be forced to mobilize to defeat it, just as we mobilized to kill the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

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New NAFTA Must Create an Economy for All

New NAFTA Must Create an Economy for All