Fact Sheet: How the Trump Child Care Plan Overlooks His Supporters in These 7 States

Rasheed Malik Policy Analyst, Center for American Progress

A new analysis from the Center for American Progress calculates how much President Donald Trump’s child care plan will mean for Trump swing voters. Using county-level election results, the research identifies Trump swing counties as those in which the vote margin swung at least 15 percentage points toward the Republican candidate from 2012 to 2016. These communities are more likely to be found in the Midwest, northern Plains, and Appalachia.

Nationwide, the typical family with two young children in Trump swing counties would only net $5.55 under Trump’s plan, even after spending thousands of dollars on child care. Meanwhile, the typical family of four with two young children in Trump’s former Upper East Side neighborhood would get a $7,329 tax break from the Trump child care plan.

This fact sheet features seven state-level estimates of the meager benefit that families in Trump swing counties will receive under the Trump child care plan.


This analysis assumes no changes to the current 2017 tax brackets and uses the design of President Trump’s child care proposal as laid out in September 2016. The author uses county-level election results to identify Trump swing counties and the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey microdata to estimate the median income of families with young children in these counties. Child care spending is estimated using the National Survey of Early Care and Education and has been inflated to 2017 dollars.

For more detail on the methods the author used, see the methodology memo here.


Reposted from the Center for American Progress.

Posted In: Allied Approaches

Union Matters

An Invitation to Sunny Miami. What Could Be Bad?

Sam Pizzigati

Sam Pizzigati Editor, Too Much online magazine

If a billionaire “invites” you somewhere, you’d better go. Or be prepared to suffer the consequences. This past May, hedge fund kingpin Carl Icahn announced in a letter to his New York-based staff of about 50 that he would be moving his business operations to Florida. But the 83-year-old Icahn assured his staffers they had no reason to worry: “My employees have always been very important to the company, so I’d like to invite you all to join me in Miami.” Those who go south, his letter added, would get a $50,000 relocation benefit “once you have established your permanent residence in Florida.” Those who stay put, the letter continued, can file for state unemployment benefits, a $450 weekly maximum that “you can receive for a total of 26 weeks.” What about severance from Icahn Enterprises? The New York Post reported last week that the two dozen employees who have chosen not to uproot their families and follow Icahn to Florida “will be let go without any severance” when the billionaire shutters his New York offices this coming March. Bloomberg currently puts Carl Icahn’s net worth at $20.5 billion.


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