Can Only “Outside-in Thinking” Provide the First Back-to-Back Democratic Presidents Since Kennedy-Johnson?

Hugh J. Campbell

Hugh J. Campbell Son of a steelworker, Philadelphia, Pa.

Can only “Outside-in Thinking” Provide the first Back-to-Back Democratic Presidents, since Kennedy-Johnson?

Looking at polling data from the point of view of an Independent plurality favors Bernie Sanders by 36% over Clinton, making him in turn a likely winner against any Republican in November. It is risky for a party that shares only 30% of the electorate to ignore the decisive role that Independents play in choosing Presidents.

The article Who's Spoiling Now? Polling Indicates That Democrats Underrate Sanders' Electability at Their Peril warns that Democratic voters flirt at their peril with using their control over primaries at the front end of a defective run-off process to deny victory in November to the nation's preferred choice, Sanders.

To win in 2016, Democratic primary voters need to vote strategically, based upon reliable information, in favor of the alliance with Independents that Sanders offers them.

The polls' most optimistic message can be summarized in the mathematics of the Democratic primary. With 30 percent of the electorate expected to vote 2:1 for Clinton, Democrats provide Sanders half the votes he needs to win the primary. But since he leads Clinton by 36% among Independents, who are 43% of the electorate, he can gain another 14% if his Independent supporters will only deign to contaminate themselves by participating in the primary of the Democrats they otherwise disdain.

You'd have to go back to 1836 for a Democrat being elected to succeed a two-term president from the same party, when voters elected Martin Van Buren to follow Andrew Jackson.

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Hugh Campbell is a seasoned financial professional, currently providing subject matter expertise on a variety of regulatory topics, including the Dodd-Frank Act, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and overall compliance monitoring. Hugh has previously held positions as Chief Risk Officer (CRO), Chief Audit Executive (CAE) and Director of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) Compliance.

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