More solid job gains, but no real wage growth

Jared Bernstein

Jared Bernstein Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

In the latest solid report on the conditions in the US labor market, payrolls grew by 213,000 in June, and labor force participation ticked up two-tenths, as more people were pulled into the improving labor market. This led to a two-tenths tick-up in the unemployment rate to 4 percent (really, 30 basis points up, from 3.75% to 4.05%). Wage growth stayed at 2.7 percent, the same pace as last month, and the average since last December. It is also worth noting that inflation is now growing at about the same rate as wages, so, in one of the less impressive aspects of the current job market recovery, real hourly pay is flat.

As the economic expansion that began in June of 2009 enters its tenth year, the enduring recovery has moved the job market closer to full employment. However, the key message from this report, is that despite many economic estimates to the contrary, there still appears to be room-to-run. That is, various indicators suggest we’re closing in on full employment, but not quite there yet. These indicators include:

–Average job gains of about 200,000 per month over the past year (see JB’s official jobs-day smoother which averages monthly payroll gains over different intervals). The historical pattern is for the pace of job gains to slow more than it has when we’re getting to full capacity in the labor market.

 

–Though wage growth has clearly ticked up a bit—it has moved from 2 percent, to 2.5, to now, 2.7 percent—it has not picked up as much as we’d expect at full employment. Our current low productivity growth regime is a constraining factor, and we’re certainly hearing a lot from employers about labor shortages. But before we take that age-old complaint, we need to see more wage pressure. Employers almost always complain about labor shortages, yet the data suggests they’ve been quite reluctant to raise pay to get and keep the workers they need.

–The fact that the unemployment rate has long been below the rate most economists believe to be consistent with stable inflation means we should be seeing inflation growing much faster than has been the case. As noted, price growth has ticked up with wage growth, but the Fed’s preferred price gauge is only now growing at their target level of 2 percent (note: unlike the deflator I applied to wages above, this gauge leaves out energy and food prices).

Turning back to the closely watched wage series, the two figures below show the annual growth rates in nominal private sector hourly pay and the pay for middle-wage workers (blue-collar manufacturing workers and non-managers in services). The six-month moving average in both cases reveal the recent acceleration as tightening job market has given wage earners more bargaining clout.

 

 

But as the next figure shows, inflation has ticked up as well (I forecasted the value for the June CPI as it isn’t out yet), and is now growing at the same rate as the hourly pay of middle-wage workers.

 

The punchline is that real hourly pay is flat, which should not be the case as we enter year 10 of this expansion. A lot of working families are legitimately asking when they can expect to benefit from what is billed in the financial and political pages as a uniquely robust recovery.

Factory jobs got a nice bump, up 36,000 in June, and I saw no evidence in the report of industries in the tradeable sector as yet affected by rising trade tensions. However, as our trading partners retaliate with tariffs of their own, and as Trump’s tariffs raise the costs of imports that go into to US production (e.g., car parts), employment in the trade-impacted sectors must be on the watchlist.

In sum, the US job-generation machine continues to post impressive numbers. In fact, these gains are consistent with a job market that has more room-to-run than many believe to be the case. But the wage story remains unsatisfying from the perspective of working families, especially when we look at real wage gains, or the buying power of paychecks. Since this is, of course, what matters most to people regarding living standards, we must recognize that the recovery, even in year 10, has yet to reach everyone.

Jared Bernstein joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in May 2011 as a Senior Fellow.  From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, executive director of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class, and a member of President Obama’s economic team. Prior to joining the Obama administration, Bernstein was a senior economist and the director of the Living Standards Program at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C. Between 1995 and 1996, he held the post of deputy chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. He is the author and co-author of numerous books, including “Crunch: Why Do I Feel So Squeezed?” and nine editions of “The State of Working America.”

Posted In: Allied Approaches

Union Matters

Get to Know AFL-CIO's Affiliates: National Association of Letter Carriers

From the AFL-CIO

Next up in our series that takes a deeper look at each of our affiliates is the National Association of Letter Carriers.

Name of Union: National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC)

Mission: To unite fraternally all city letter carriers employed by the U.S. Postal Service for their mutual benefit; to obtain and secure rights as employees of the USPS and to strive at all times to promote the safety and the welfare of every member; to strive for the constant improvement of the Postal Service; and for other purposes. NALC is a single-craft union and is the sole collective-bargaining agent for city letter carriers.

Current Leadership of Union: Fredric V. Rolando serves as president of NALC, after being sworn in as the union's 18th president in 2009. Rolando began his career as a letter carrier in 1978 in South Miami before moving to Sarasota in 1984. He was elected president of Branch 2148 in 1988 and served in that role until 1999. In the ensuing years, he worked in various roles for NALC before winning his election as a national officer in 2002, when he was elected director of city delivery. In 2006, he won election as executive vice president. Rolando was re-elected as NALC president in 2010, 2014 and 2018.

Brian Renfroe serves as executive vice president, Lew Drass as vice president, Nicole Rhine as secretary-treasurer, Paul Barner as assistant secretary-treasurer, Christopher Jackson as director of city delivery, Manuel L. Peralta Jr. as director of safety and health, Dan Toth as director of retired members, Stephanie Stewart as director of the Health Benefit Plan and James W. “Jim” Yates as director of life insurance.

Number of Members: 291,000 active and retired letter carriers.

Members Work As: City letter carriers.

Industries Represented: The United States Postal Service.

History: In 1794, the first letter carriers were appointed by Congress as the implementation of the new U.S. Constitution was being put into effect. By the time of the Civil War, free delivery of city mail was established and letter carriers successfully concluded a campaign for the eight-hour workday in 1888. The next year, letter carriers came together in Milwaukee and the National Association of Letter Carriers was formed.

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