Trumpcare could cost 24 million people their insurance, government analysis finds

Casey Quinlan

Casey Quinlan Policy Reporter, ThinkProgress

The Congressional Budget Office released its long awaited analysis of Trumpcare on Monday afternoon, and its findings were grim.

The CBO found that 14 million fewer Americans would be insured by 2018 under the House GOP’s health care plan. By 2026, a full 24 million people would have gone uninsured relative to the number of people expected to be insured under the Affordable Care Act. The increase stems mostly from Trumpcare’s repeal of the individual mandate and changes to Medicaid.

The House GOP’s plan would get rid of the individual mandate that requires all Americans to sign up for health insurance, and would instead introduce a provision requiring continuous coverage. If anyone tries to go without insurance for two months or more, they would be required to pay 30 percent more on their premiums once they resumed coverage. Health care experts say this won’t be enough to keep healthy people in the market.

The plan would also phase out Medicaid expansion and restructure how the program is funded. Health care experts also say they are concerned that tax credits won’t benefit low-income people the way they did under the ACA, and that things like health savings accounts won’t be enough to help the Americans who need help the most. Overall, low-income people, women, people with chronic illnesses, and people with mental health issues would suffer the most under this plan.

The CBO also projected that premiums would be 15 to 20 percent higher overall in 2018 and 2019. The cost would start to decline in 2020, but older enrollees would still pay substantially higher premiums than young people, because insurers would be permitted to charge then five times as much. Under the ACA, insurers can only charge older people up to three times more than younger people.

Republicans on the Hill and in the Trump administration, perhaps anticipating a report with these findings, started casting doubt on the CBO’s accuracy well before Monday’s report came out.

“So I love the folks at the CBO, they work really hard, they do, but sometimes we ask them to do stuff they’re not capable of doing, and estimating the impact of a bill this size isn’t the — isn’t the best use of their time,” Mick Mulvaney, President Donald Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, told ABC News on Sunday.

The CBO estimated that enacting Trumpcare would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion over the 2017–2026 period. There would be a $1.2 trillion reduction in outlays, with the largest savings coming from changes to Medicaid and the elimination of the ACA’s subsidies for non-group health insurance. There would a reduction of $880 billion in federal outlays for Medicaid.

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Reposted from ThinkProgress.

Posted In: Allied Approaches

Union Matters

Get to Know AFL-CIO's Affiliates: National Association of Letter Carriers

From the AFL-CIO

Next up in our series that takes a deeper look at each of our affiliates is the National Association of Letter Carriers.

Name of Union: National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC)

Mission: To unite fraternally all city letter carriers employed by the U.S. Postal Service for their mutual benefit; to obtain and secure rights as employees of the USPS and to strive at all times to promote the safety and the welfare of every member; to strive for the constant improvement of the Postal Service; and for other purposes. NALC is a single-craft union and is the sole collective-bargaining agent for city letter carriers.

Current Leadership of Union: Fredric V. Rolando serves as president of NALC, after being sworn in as the union's 18th president in 2009. Rolando began his career as a letter carrier in 1978 in South Miami before moving to Sarasota in 1984. He was elected president of Branch 2148 in 1988 and served in that role until 1999. In the ensuing years, he worked in various roles for NALC before winning his election as a national officer in 2002, when he was elected director of city delivery. In 2006, he won election as executive vice president. Rolando was re-elected as NALC president in 2010, 2014 and 2018.

Brian Renfroe serves as executive vice president, Lew Drass as vice president, Nicole Rhine as secretary-treasurer, Paul Barner as assistant secretary-treasurer, Christopher Jackson as director of city delivery, Manuel L. Peralta Jr. as director of safety and health, Dan Toth as director of retired members, Stephanie Stewart as director of the Health Benefit Plan and James W. “Jim” Yates as director of life insurance.

Number of Members: 291,000 active and retired letter carriers.

Members Work As: City letter carriers.

Industries Represented: The United States Postal Service.

History: In 1794, the first letter carriers were appointed by Congress as the implementation of the new U.S. Constitution was being put into effect. By the time of the Civil War, free delivery of city mail was established and letter carriers successfully concluded a campaign for the eight-hour workday in 1888. The next year, letter carriers came together in Milwaukee and the National Association of Letter Carriers was formed.

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There is Dignity in All Work

There is Dignity in All Work