The Trump administration’s long-awaited analysis of the GOP tax plan has bad news for Republicans

Rebekah Entralgo

Rebekah Entralgo Reporter, ThinkProgress

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department finally released its analysis of the GOP tax plan: a single page report that essentially concedes the analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation is correct.

According to the Treasury analysis, the tax plan will cost an estimated $1.5 trillion dollars, while raising only $408 billion in revenue, leaving the country $1 trillion in the hole. This eviscerates any notion that the GOP plan will pay for itself, as previously suggested by administration officials like chief economic adviser Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

The Treasury Department also took its analysis one step too far, assuming 2.9 percent economic growth over the next decade, without providing any actual analysis for it. A Treasury memo released on Monday “modeled the revenue impact of higher growth effects, using the Administration projections of approximately a 2.9% real GDP growth rate over 10 years contained in the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2018 budget.”

The 3 percent growth projected by the Trump administration’s 2018 fiscal year budget has been debunked and labeled a “fantasy” numerous times.

The Treasury Department memo further confirms what a number of institutions, such as the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, the Penn Wharton Budget Model, and the conservative Tax Foundation, have said in recent weeks: that the GOP tax plan will not pay for itself. According to a University of Chicago survey, 37 out of 38 economists don’t believe the plan will spur enough growth to pay for itself either.

So what’s the point in releasing a document that doesn’t even support what the administration has been promising? Considering the Treasury Department’s inspector general opened an inquiry into why the department had not yet released its analysis to the public — as it had promised it would — officials had to release something, even if it was difficult to explain the numbers they came up with.

Mnuchin spent months talking about a formal Treasury analysis, only to have The New York Times report in November that no such analysis actually existed, according to an economist in the Treasury department.

“Either the Treasury Department has used extensive taxpayer funds to conduct economic analyses that it refuses to release because those analyses would contradict the Treasury Secretary’s claims, or Secretary Mnuchin has grossly misled the public about the extent of the Treasury Department’s analysis,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) wrote in a letter to the Treasury’s inspector general. “I am deeply concerned about either possibility.”

With the GOP tax bill passed in the House and Senate, and now in conference committee, Republicans will have to reconcile their differences and hash out a final plan that will have to be passed again by the House and Senate. There are a number of disputes that have yet to be resolved in order for Republicans to snag a solid 51 votes, the most important of which being the deficit.

For every tax analysis published, support for the bill from deficit hawks like Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ) wanes. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who was instrumental in voting against the GOP’s failed attempts at dismantling the Affordable Care Act, has also expressed a hesitancy to vote for the bill if it includes a repeal of the individual mandate.


Reposted from Think Progress

Posted In: Allied Approaches

Union Matters

Get to Know AFL-CIO's Affiliates: National Association of Letter Carriers

From the AFL-CIO

Next up in our series that takes a deeper look at each of our affiliates is the National Association of Letter Carriers.

Name of Union: National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC)

Mission: To unite fraternally all city letter carriers employed by the U.S. Postal Service for their mutual benefit; to obtain and secure rights as employees of the USPS and to strive at all times to promote the safety and the welfare of every member; to strive for the constant improvement of the Postal Service; and for other purposes. NALC is a single-craft union and is the sole collective-bargaining agent for city letter carriers.

Current Leadership of Union: Fredric V. Rolando serves as president of NALC, after being sworn in as the union's 18th president in 2009. Rolando began his career as a letter carrier in 1978 in South Miami before moving to Sarasota in 1984. He was elected president of Branch 2148 in 1988 and served in that role until 1999. In the ensuing years, he worked in various roles for NALC before winning his election as a national officer in 2002, when he was elected director of city delivery. In 2006, he won election as executive vice president. Rolando was re-elected as NALC president in 2010, 2014 and 2018.

Brian Renfroe serves as executive vice president, Lew Drass as vice president, Nicole Rhine as secretary-treasurer, Paul Barner as assistant secretary-treasurer, Christopher Jackson as director of city delivery, Manuel L. Peralta Jr. as director of safety and health, Dan Toth as director of retired members, Stephanie Stewart as director of the Health Benefit Plan and James W. “Jim” Yates as director of life insurance.

Number of Members: 291,000 active and retired letter carriers.

Members Work As: City letter carriers.

Industries Represented: The United States Postal Service.

History: In 1794, the first letter carriers were appointed by Congress as the implementation of the new U.S. Constitution was being put into effect. By the time of the Civil War, free delivery of city mail was established and letter carriers successfully concluded a campaign for the eight-hour workday in 1888. The next year, letter carriers came together in Milwaukee and the National Association of Letter Carriers was formed.

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There is Dignity in All Work