Republicans, Here’s Your Way Out Of the Obamacare Vise

Bill Scher

Bill Scher Online Editor, Campaign for America's Future

The Republicans are in a jam. For the last six years, they’ve pledged to repeal Obamacare, but haven’t figured out a plan for replacing it. They are ideologically opposed to government involvement, but they know that taking away the health insurance of 20 million people is politically disastrous. They rail against high premiums, but they know taking away the individual mandate — and taking out younger, healthier customers from the risk pool — would only make premiums go even higher.

But there is a way out. It requires Republicans to prioritize maintaining political power over sticking with ideological principles. But after swallowing Trump on trade, Russia and politically pressuring individual corporations, that should not be a problem.

The solution is three-fold. One, encourage holdout Republican governors to expand Medicaid. Two, increase Obamacare subsidies. Three, call it Trumpcare.

Why would Republicans ever swerve left to improve Obamacare? First and foremost, it would directly benefit Trump voters. Second, Obama, once out of office, can no longer politically benefit; there’s no reason to withhold health care out of spite. Three, Trump would accept it — deep down, he’s always been a single-payer guy.

Nineteen states have refused to take the Obamacare deal of expanding Medicaid coverage to the working poor at almost no cost to the states. Nearly all those states have Republican governors (two now have Democratic governors with Republican legislatures.) Because of their resistance, 2.6 million adults still lack insurance, and full expansion would make a total of 4.5 million Medicaid eligible.

But the overall uninsured population is much larger: 28.5 million (roughly 6 million of that are not citizens). And the biggest reason why people don’t have insurance is that they earn too much money to qualify for subsidies yet still can’t afford the cost. Plus, many who do have insurance through Obamacare feel it’s not robust enough. Obvious solution: more subsidies.

Recent focus groups with Trump voters who are covered by Obamacare marketplace insurance or by Medicaid revealed that those dissatisfied want more government help, not less. Drew Altman, of the Kaiser Family Foundation which led the focus groups, explained in a New York Times oped:

They spoke anxiously about rising premiums, deductibles, copays and drug costs … Those with marketplace insurance — for which they were eligible for subsidies — saw Medicaid as a much better deal than their insurance and were resentful that people with incomes lower than theirs could get it … asked about policies found in several Republican plans to replace the Affordable Care Act — including a tax credit to help defray the cost of premiums, a tax-preferred savings account and a large deductible typical of catastrophic coverage — several of these Trump voters recoiled, calling such proposals “not insurance at all.”

If there’s one concept that a populist carnival barker like Trump should understands is “give the people what they want.” What they want is for the government to cover their health care costs.

And they expect Trump to deliver. Altman noted:

They were also worried about what they called “chaos” if there was a gap between repealing and replacing Obamacare. But most did not think that, as one participant put it, “a smart businessman like Trump would let that happen.”

Is Trump smart enough to know that he can just build on what works? Doesn’t appear so. He’s operating on the presumption that Obamacare is a ticking time bomb that needs to be overhauled immediately. He said in his press conference, “’17 is going to be the bad year. It’s going to be catastrophic. Frankly, we could sit back — and it was a thought from a political standpoint — but it wouldn’t be fair to the people.”

Outside of the right-wing bubble, that’s not the case at all. As CNBC reported last month:

…health insurers are expected in 2016 “to start reversing” financial losses on their Obamacare business after “hitting bottom” in 2015.

And 2017 “will likely see continued improvement” for those insurers selling individual health plans, “with more insurers getting close to breakeven or better,” according to the report by Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings.

The report also says big price increases for Obamacare plans in 2017 were likely a “one-time pricing correction.”

And S&P said that while it expects insurers to ask for premium hikes for 2018, it also believes that “the average level of increase requested will be well below the 2017 hike” of 25 percent for a key type of Obamacare plans.

If Trump can escape the ideologically blinkered Republican universe and rediscover his inner single-payer liberalism, the way out of the Obamacare vise is obvious. If he can’t figure that out, and creates a massive unforced error by blowing up a health care reform program that’s working, then you’ll know he’s not a smart businessman after all.

***

This has been reposted from Our Future.

Bill Scher is the author of Wait! Don’t Move To Canada!: A Stay-and-Fight Strategy to Win Back America. He is the online campaign manager at Campaign for America’s Future, a regular contributor to Bloggingheads.tv and a fellow at the Commonwealth Institute.

Posted In: Allied Approaches, From Campaign for America's Future

Union Matters

Get to Know AFL-CIO's Affiliates: National Association of Letter Carriers

From the AFL-CIO

Next up in our series that takes a deeper look at each of our affiliates is the National Association of Letter Carriers.

Name of Union: National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC)

Mission: To unite fraternally all city letter carriers employed by the U.S. Postal Service for their mutual benefit; to obtain and secure rights as employees of the USPS and to strive at all times to promote the safety and the welfare of every member; to strive for the constant improvement of the Postal Service; and for other purposes. NALC is a single-craft union and is the sole collective-bargaining agent for city letter carriers.

Current Leadership of Union: Fredric V. Rolando serves as president of NALC, after being sworn in as the union's 18th president in 2009. Rolando began his career as a letter carrier in 1978 in South Miami before moving to Sarasota in 1984. He was elected president of Branch 2148 in 1988 and served in that role until 1999. In the ensuing years, he worked in various roles for NALC before winning his election as a national officer in 2002, when he was elected director of city delivery. In 2006, he won election as executive vice president. Rolando was re-elected as NALC president in 2010, 2014 and 2018.

Brian Renfroe serves as executive vice president, Lew Drass as vice president, Nicole Rhine as secretary-treasurer, Paul Barner as assistant secretary-treasurer, Christopher Jackson as director of city delivery, Manuel L. Peralta Jr. as director of safety and health, Dan Toth as director of retired members, Stephanie Stewart as director of the Health Benefit Plan and James W. “Jim” Yates as director of life insurance.

Number of Members: 291,000 active and retired letter carriers.

Members Work As: City letter carriers.

Industries Represented: The United States Postal Service.

History: In 1794, the first letter carriers were appointed by Congress as the implementation of the new U.S. Constitution was being put into effect. By the time of the Civil War, free delivery of city mail was established and letter carriers successfully concluded a campaign for the eight-hour workday in 1888. The next year, letter carriers came together in Milwaukee and the National Association of Letter Carriers was formed.

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